Acute and Critical Care

Original Article

Pulmonary
Development of a prognostic scoring system in patients with pneumonia requiring ventilator care for more than 4 days: a single-center observational study: Yeseul Oh, Yewon Kang, Kwangha Lee; Acute Crit Care. 2021;36(1):46-53. Published online February 17, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4266/acc.2020.00787

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Background
The aim of the present study was to develop a prognostic model using demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and clinical variables measured on day 4 of mechanical ventilation (MV) for patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV; MV for >96 hours).
Methods
Data from 437 patients (70.9% male; median age, 68 years) were obtained over a period of 9 years. All patients were diagnosed with pneumonia. Binary logistic regression identified factors predicting mortality at 90 days after the start of MV. A PAMV prognosis score was calculating ß-coefficient values and assigning points to variables.
Results
The overall 90-day mortality rate was 47.1%. Five factors (age ≥65 years, body mass index <18.5 kg/m², hemato-oncologic diseases as comorbidities, requirement for vasopressors on day 4 of MV and requirement for neuromuscular blocking agents on day 4 of MV) were identified as prognostic indicators. Each factor was valued as +1 point, and used to develop a PAMV prognosis score. This score showed acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.695 for mortality, 95% confidence interval 0.650–0.738, p<0.001), and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square=6.331, with df 7 and p=0.502). The cutoff value for predicting mortality based on the maximum Youden index was ≤2 (sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 41.3%). For patients with PAMV scores ≤1, 2, 3 and ≥4, the 90-day mortality rates were 29.2%, 45.7%, 67.9%, and 90.9%, respectively (P<0.001).
Conclusions
Our study developed a PAMV prognosis score for predicting 90-day mortality. Further research is needed to validate the utility of this score.

Citations

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Ability of the modified NUTRIC score to predict mortality in patients requiring short-term versus prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: a retrospective cohort study
Wanho Yoo, Hyojin Jang, Hayoung Seong, Saerom Kim, Soo Han Kim, Eun-Jung Jo, Jung Seop Eom, Kwangha Lee
Therapeutic Advances in Respiratory Disease.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
Association between mechanical power and intensive care unit mortality in Korean patients under pressure-controlled ventilation
Jae Kyeom Sim, Sang-Min Lee, Hyung Koo Kang, Kyung Chan Kim, Young Sam Kim, Yun Seong Kim, Won-Yeon Lee, Sunghoon Park, So Young Park, Ju-Hee Park, Yun Su Sim, Kwangha Lee, Yeon Joo Lee, Jin Hwa Lee, Heung Bum Lee, Chae-Man Lim, Won-Il Choi, Ji Young Hong
Acute and Critical Care.2024; 39(1): 91. CrossRef

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