Background Diagnosing pediatric septic shock is difficult due to the complex and often impractical traditional criteria, such as systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), which result in delays and higher risks. This study aims to develop a deep learning-based model using SIRS data for early diagnosis in pediatric septic shock cases. Methods: The study analyzed data from pediatric patients (<18 years old) admitted to a tertiary hospital from January 2010 to July 2023. Vital signs, lab tests, and clinical information were collected. Septic shock cases were identified using SIRS criteria and inotrope use. A deep learning model was trained and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Variable contributions were analyzed using the Shapley additive explanation value. Results: The analysis, involving 9,616,115 measurements, identified 34,696 septic shock cases (0.4%). Oxygen supply was crucial for 41.5% of the control group and 20.8% of the septic shock group. The final model showed strong performance, with an AUROC of 0.927 and AUPRC of 0.879. Key influencers were age, oxygen supply, sex, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide, while body temperature had minimal impact on estimation. Conclusions: The proposed deep learning model simplifies early septic shock diagnosis in pediatric patients, reducing the diagnostic workload. Its high accuracy allows timely treatment, but external validation through prospective studies is needed.
Background Identifying critically ill patients at risk of cardiac arrest is important because it offers the opportunity for early intervention and increased survival. The aim of this study was to develop a deep learning model to predict critical events, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation or mortality. Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary university hospital. All patients younger than 18 years who were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2010 to May 2023 were included. The main outcome was prediction performance of the deep learning model at forecasting critical events. Long short-term memory was used as a deep learning algorithm. The five-fold cross validation method was employed for model learning and testing. Results: Among the vital sign measurements collected during the study period, 11,660 measurements were used to develop the model after preprocessing; 1,060 of these data points were measurements that corresponded to critical events. The prediction performance of the model was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.988 (0.9751.000), and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.862 (0.700–1.000). Conclusions: The performance of the developed model at predicting critical events was excellent. However, follow-up research is needed for external validation.
Background Various rapid response systems have been developed to detect clinical deterioration in patients. Few studies have evaluated single-parameter systems in children compared to scoring systems. Therefore, in this study we evaluated a single-parameter system called the acute response system (ARS).
Methods This retrospective study was performed at a tertiary children’s hospital. Patients under 18 years old admitted from January 2012 to August 2023 were enrolled. ARS parameters such as systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and whether the ARS was activated were collected. We divided patients into two groups according to activation status and then compared the occurrence of critical events (cardiopulmonary resuscitation or unexpected intensive care unit admission). We evaluated the ability of ARS to predict critical events and calculated compliance. We also analyzed the correlation between each parameter that activates ARS and critical events.
Results The critical events prediction performance of ARS has a specificity of 98.5%, a sensitivity of 24.0%, a negative predictive value of 99.6%, and a positive predictive value of 8.1%. The compliance rate was 15.6%. Statistically significant increases in the risk of critical events were observed for all abnormal criteria except low heart rate. There was no significant difference in the incidence of critical events.
Conclusions ARS, a single parameter system, had good specificity and negative predictive value for predicting critical events; however, sensitivity and positive predictive value were not good, and medical staff compliance was poor.
Background Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 (PIM 3) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 (PELOD-2) are validated tools for predicting mortality in children. Research suggests that these tools may have different predictive performance depending on patient group characteristics. Therefore, we designed this study to identify the factors that make the mortality rates predicted by the tools different.
Methods This retrospective study included patients (<18 years) who were admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit from July 2017 to May 2019. After defining the predicted mortality of PIM 3 minus the predicted mortality rate of PELOD-2 as “difference in mortality prediction,” the clinical characteristics significantly related to this were analyzed using multivariable regression analysis. Predictive performance was analyzed through the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).
Results In total, 945 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 3.0 [0.0–8.0] years; girls, 44.7%) were analyzed. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed AUROCs of 0.889 (χ2=10.187, P=0.313) and 0.731 (χ2=6.220, P=0.183) of PIM 3 and PELOD-2, respectively. Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed that oxygen saturation, partial pressure of CO2, base excess, platelet counts, and blood urea nitrogen levels were significant factors. Patient condition-related factors such as cardiac bypass surgery, seizures, cardiomyopathy or myocarditis, necrotizing enterocolitis, cardiac arrest, leukemia or lymphoma after the first induction, bone marrow transplantation, and liver failure were significantly related (P<0.001).
Conclusions Both tools predicted observed mortality well; however, caution is needed in interpretation as they may show different prediction results in relation to specific clinical characteristics.
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Disseminated neonatal herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection is one of the most severe neonatal infections, and can have devastating consequences without early proper treatment.
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