Background The aim of the present study was to develop a prognostic model using demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and clinical variables measured on day 4 of mechanical ventilation (MV) for patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV; MV for >96 hours).
Methods Data from 437 patients (70.9% male; median age, 68 years) were obtained over a period of 9 years. All patients were diagnosed with pneumonia. Binary logistic regression identified factors predicting mortality at 90 days after the start of MV. A PAMV prognosis score was calculating ß-coefficient values and assigning points to variables.
Results The overall 90-day mortality rate was 47.1%. Five factors (age ≥65 years, body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, hemato-oncologic diseases as comorbidities, requirement for vasopressors on day 4 of MV and requirement for neuromuscular blocking agents on day 4 of MV) were identified as prognostic indicators. Each factor was valued as +1 point, and used to develop a PAMV prognosis score. This score showed acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.695 for mortality, 95% confidence interval 0.650–0.738, p<0.001), and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square=6.331, with df 7 and p=0.502). The cutoff value for predicting mortality based on the maximum Youden index was ≤2 (sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 41.3%). For patients with PAMV scores ≤1, 2, 3 and ≥4, the 90-day mortality rates were 29.2%, 45.7%, 67.9%, and 90.9%, respectively (P<0.001).
Conclusions Our study developed a PAMV prognosis score for predicting 90-day mortality. Further research is needed to validate the utility of this score.
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Background The occurrence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteremia in ventilated patients may be associated with a high mortality rate. We evaluated whether Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score on the day of bacteremia could predict 90-day mortality in these patients.
Methods Data were obtained retrospectively from 202 patients (male, 60.4%; median age, 64 years) hospitalized at a single university-affiliated tertiary care hospital. All adult patients who had were ventilated and had one of the following six MDR bacteremias between March 2011 and February 2018 were enrolled: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Gram-negative bacteria (Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumonia), carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative rods (Acinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa), or vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium.
Results The overall 90-day mortality rate after the day of bacteremia was 59.9%. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were 0.732 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.666 to 0.792; P<0.001) and 0.662 (95% CI, 0.593 to 0.727; P<0.001), respectively, with no difference between the two (P=0.059). Also, the cutoff value of the SOFA score was 9 (based on Youden’s index). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that this cut-off value was significantly associated with higher mortality rate (hazard ratio, 2.886; 95% CI, 1.946 to 4.221; P<0.001).
Conclusions SOFA score measured on the day of bacteremia may be a useful prognostic indicator of 90-day mortality in ventilated patients with MDR bacteremia.
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